Judul : A bigger danger is lurking
link : A bigger danger is lurking
A bigger danger is lurking
The charter court's suspension of Paetongtarn Shinawatra as premier pending deliberation of the leaked phone conversation she had with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen is a ticking time bomb that threatens to cut short this administration's term.
However, some observers say if Ms Paetongtarn is eventually booted out as premier by the Constitutional Court, the ruling Pheu Thai Party, which she leads, could nominate its last remaining prime ministerial candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, to replace her.
His nomination is likely to receive the backing of the existing coalition, provided he softens or rescinds his stance on amending Section 112 of the Criminal Code, aka the lese majeste law.
Some think if and when Mr Chaikasem's candidacy is given the stamp of approval by parliament, the current government could be blessed with a new lease on life, and it will be business as usual.
However, the observers said an even bigger time bomb has gone almost unnoticed, one that could wipe out half the parliamentarians and throw the legislative and executive branches into disarray.
The battlefield has shifted to the courtroom, and the centre of attention is Section 144 of the 2017 Constitution -- the most stringent fiscal oversight clause in Thai political history.
Section 144, viewed as a legal trap for many in the current parliament, imposes strict limits on budget allocations. It states that: "members of parliament, budget committees, or the cabinet are prohibited from altering the national budget, except to reduce or cut. They must not alter expenditures related to debt repayments, loan interest and statutory obligations".
Violations can lead to removal from office, loss of electoral rights, and a demand to repay misused funds -- within a 20-year window.
The clause is becoming the core of a legal case that is radically shaking Thai politics. The Srettha Thavisin administration reallocated 35 billion baht from the investment budgets of five state enterprises -- funds originally borrowed under strict fiscal laws -- to the central budget, to fund the much-hyped but highly contentious 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme.
The move, aimed at stimulating the economy, sparked an immediate legal backlash. When Ms Paetongtarn assumed the leadership and began actual disbursement of the funds, it provided the opposition with concrete grounds to challenge it under Section 144.
On April 25, four long-time critics of the Thaksin regime -- former Democrat Party MP Charnchai Issarasenarak, former senator Somchai Sawaengkarn, legal scholar Jade Donavanik, and political activist Nitithorn Lumlua -- filed a petition with the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), asking for an investigation into whether the budget reallocation breached the constitution.
The petitioners have been resisting the Thaksin Shinawatra-aligned political order for decades. Beyond the digital wallet programme, they have also led strong opposition against proposals to legalise casinos -- another flagship initiative of the Paetongtarn government, which has now been shelved in parliament.
The current strategy of the anti-Thaksin brigade is a two-pronged approach: spur public sentiment on budget spending while pushing for legal scrutiny. Their petition targets not only the executive branch but also the 309 MPs, 175 senators, and 72 budget committee members who endorsed the altered budget bill.
Crucially, the final paragraph of Section 144 empowers the NACC to directly refer such cases to the Constitutional Court, which can independently conduct hearings and issue rulings.
The country's political history has shown that legal rulings can restructure power dynamics. But this is the first time Section 144 has been wielded in a way that could affect such a wide swath of the political establishment -- potentially dismantling the entire ecosystem linked to Thaksin, according to observers.
Proponents of the digital wallet project argue that the purpose of the scheme is to act as an economic stimulus, particularly for grassroots communities, and not for political gain. However, past Constitutional Court rulings have prioritised legal facts and constitutional text over intent or public approval.
Thus, even if the budget cut served the public interest, if it contravenes the Constitution's clear prohibitions, the act is still unlawful, the observers said.
Now, the Section 144 time bomb sits in the hands of the NACC. Its decision -- whether to forward the case to the Constitutional Court -- will be a defining moment. If accepted and ruled unconstitutional, the fallout could engulf not just the government, but also many lawmakers and officials tied to the Thaksin-linked network, the observers said.
Mr Jade has clarified that no political vacuum will be forthcoming even if the 309 MPs are removed from office.
He outlined possible solutions.
If the court rules that a violation has indeed occurred, resulting in the dissolution of all parties except the main opposition People's Party (PP), which did not endorse the budget reallocation, and the cabinet is found guilty under Article 144, the cabinet would no longer be able to serve in a caretaker capacity.
In this scenario, permanent secretaries from various ministries would convene to select one among them to act as an interim prime minister. This person could carry out their duties until parliament's term ends, at which point an election would be held, he said.
Also, PP MPs may choose to resign en masse or if the remaining MPs also resign, it will necessitate a political transition. He stressed that this would not lead to a coup or a call for a royally appointed prime minister. Rather, it would be a democratic transition managed through elections.
If the situation is treated as equating to a House dissolution, a general election would be organised within 45 to 60 days, preventing any political vacuum, the academic said.
Not ready to give in yet
With the Pheu Thai-led coalition clinging to a slim majority and his daughter's premiership hanging in the balance, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has stepped back into the spotlight to ensure the situation does not result in political deadlock.
Speaking at the "55 Years Nation Exclusive Talk: Breaking Through Thailand's Crisis Chapter 1" event on July 9, Thaksin reaffirmed his confidence that his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, will have a long political career if the Constitutional Court rules in her favour.
Ms Paetongtarn was suspended as prime minister pending a ruling over her leaked phone call with Cambodia's Hun Sen.
Should she be removed from office by the court, Pheu Thai will nominate its third and final prime ministerial candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, for the post, while he himself is far from done with politics, according to Thaksin.
"At 76, I'm not too old to serve the country," he was quoted as saying.
Thaksin recently attended a policy meeting regarding US tariffs with "Team Thailand" at Ban Phitsanulok, which triggered concerns he may be unlawfully influencing the party and the government.
If all else fails, dissolving the House would be the last resort, Thaksin, widely dubbed as Pheu Thai's de facto leader, said at the event.
Despite his attempts to reassure that Pheu Thai remains firmly in control, analysts saw Thaksin's latest comments as a sign of weakness and criticised him for being melodramatic and lacking credibility.
Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration, said Thaksin appeared to be sending a message to the conservative camp that he is still capable of controlling political moves and remains a reliable political broker to contain the rise of the orange camp -- a reference to the main opposition People's Party (PP).
He pointed to Thaksin's remarks such as "red [Pheu Thai] and orange cannot mix because it will become too hot a colour" and his openness to reconcile with the Bhumjaithai Party even if it means "swallowing buckets of blood". However, critics were sceptical as to whether what he said reflected his true intentions.
According to Mr Phichai, the conservative bloc may be questioning whether Thaksin can deliver what he has promised on critical issues related to domestic politics, border tensions with Cambodia or economic hardship.
"Thaksin and Pheu Thai are in a very precarious position [holding a slim majority]. Thaksin knows that the party can't lead the coalition for long and a House dissolution is the only option he has," he said.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, agreed that Pheu Thai is backed into a corner due to Ms Paetongtarn's Constitutional Court case over the leaked phone conversation she had with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen and Thaksin's legal troubles.
The Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions has launched an inquiry into his extended stay at the Police General Hospital (PGH) after his return to Thailand to serve a sentence for multiple corruption-related convictions.
Questions have been raised about whether proper legal procedures were followed in allowing Thaksin to remain outside of prison to supposedly receive medical treatment.
According to Mr Stithorn, recent opinion polls have shown that Pheu Thai's popularity has nosedived.
The Criminal Court is also scheduled to rule on Aug 22 on the lese majeste case against Thaksin for comments he made in a 2015 interview with the Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo.
"It is the end of the road for Thaksin and a House dissolution is the only way [forward]," Mr Stithorn said.
The analyst said he believed that Thaksin is signalling to the conservative camp that his alleged deal to curb the rise of the orange camp remains intact.
Behind the scenes, Thaksin is believed to be working to secure the most favourable outcome for his daughter and is likely to advise Ms Paetongtarn to resign just before the court delivers its ruling in a bid to avoid public embarrassment, said the analyst.
If the court rules against her, Thaksin is expected to push acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai to dissolve the House and call a snap election.
It is possible that Thaksin may try to delay this until the end of the year or early next year to buy time, Mr Stithorn said, noting that as long as Pheu Thai controls the Interior Ministry and key budgetary resources, the party will retain significant electoral leverage.
"But they'll have to mobilise more resources than ever before -- more than the party has ever spent [in the next polls]," he said.
This is because Pheu Thai faces two formidable opponents -- the PP whose progressive platform continues to attract younger voters, and Bhumjaithai, which relies on the "big houses" and is reportedly well-prepared for the next election, he added.
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