Judul : Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov’s hand-picked successor? His underage son
link : Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov’s hand-picked successor? His underage son
Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov’s hand-picked successor? His underage son
Adam Kadyrov will turn 18 in November. He's already been married twice. He was only 16 when he got married for the first time. It was an Islamic ceremony, according to rumor. The second, held about a year later in late June of this year, was said to be a lavish celebration. Pictures show the newlywed with a pistol in his hand at the wheel of a pricey green special-edition Mercedes SUV. Even Russian President Vladimir Putin is reported to have called to congratulate the bridegroom. However, observers noticed that one man was missing from all the pictures: Ramzan Kadyrov, Adam's father and the absolute ruler of the Russian republic of Chechnya in the North Caucasus.
Speculation about Kadyrov's health
The hasty marriage of Adam Kadyrov, who is still a minor, to Medni Geremeyeva, who is also a minor and whose father represents the republic in the upper house of the Russian parliament, is connected to Ramzan Kadyrov's increasingly frequent absences. The 48-year-old, who has 14 children with several women, is said to be seriously ill. Speculation about his health has been circulating for years. Russian media have reported several times that he is close to death, or will at least step down imminently.
Each time, the Telegram channel maintained by Chechnya’s leader publishes images and videos intended to prove the opposite and ridicule the speculation. Ramzan Kadyrov himself has helped fuel the rumors, perhaps mischievously. Last winter, for example, he announced his resignation, only to assert shortly afterward that he did not mean it. In May, when there was renewed talk of his imminent departure, he showed up at the Kremlin in Moscow and held talks with Putin as if nothing was out of the ordinary. He slyly suggested Putin would not let him go, thereby further increasing his political value.
However, the conclusion that there are good reasons for Ramzan Kadyrov to step down is based on more than rumors. His Telegram channel today features fewer personal messages, pictures and videos than it used to. While he once constantly commented on the fighting in Ukraine, especially at the beginning of the war, his voice is now completely absent from discussions on the subject. In Chechnya, he is now frequently represented by his prime minister, Magomed Daudov, at government meetings and public events. When Ramzan Kadyrov himself appears in public, he speaks more unclearly than ever before. At times he appears bloated, at others emaciated.
In a multipart investigation published in the spring of 2024, Russian exile publication Novaya Gazeta Europa cited pancreatic necrosis, a serious disease of the pancreas, as the cause of the Chechen leader's poor health. The disease is responsible for the increasing frequency of Ramzan Kadyrov’s hospital stays, the publication wrote. Two months ago, Novaya Gazeta also wrote that as of February, the elder Kadyrov had begun spending more and more time at the Aimed private clinic in the Chechen capital of Grozny. This clinic is owned by his family.
Hand off to the son
Is 17-year-old Adam Kadyrov now on his way to succeeding his father? It won’t be that straightforward, but one thing seems clear: After some back and forth, Ramzan Kadyrov has chosen his third son, Adam, as his successor. Should the elder Kadyrov indeed no longer be able to remain at the republic’s helm, Adam Kadyrov today seems destined to secure the family’s political monopoly. Were she not a woman, Ramzan Kadyrov would probably have instead preferred his eldest daughter, Aishat Kadyrova. As Chechnya’s deputy head of government for social affairs until February, she had clearly proved herself. As minister of culture, she transformed Chechen cultural policy, and also played a role in promoting the republic’s new image as a tourist destination.
Now, according to the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europa and its sources, there are indications that Kadyrova, together with two of her sisters, has taken over responsibility for the commercial branch of the family empire, and has therefore resigned from government service. The clan has acquired monopolies in various industries in Chechnya. Contacts in the Arab world, particularly within the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, are particularly important in this regard. Ramzan Kadyrov has helped established those links for the benefit of the Kremlin, too. Kadyrova is reported to be looking for investment opportunities – and perhaps also for a potential safe haven, should the political winds change direction.
For a while, it seemed as if the eldest son, Akhmat Kadyrov, would follow in his father's footsteps. He was granted an audience with Putin in the Kremlin and has traveled abroad, including to Azerbaijan. What exactly caused the clan's patriarch to change his mind is unclear, but since autumn 2023 at the latest, attention has been focused on Adam Kadyrov.
Rapid career rise despite few qualifications
Adam Kadyrov’s name became widely known after an act of violence. In a Grozny jail, he beat up a young Russian named Nikita Zhuravel, who – allegedly incited by Ukraine's intelligence services – was said to have burned a copy of the Quran in Volgograd. The evidence for this act was flimsy, but with the help of a federal investigation committee, the accused ended up in Grozny and was handed over to the Kadyrov clan for vigilante justice. The scene, which was captured on video, drew Ramzan Kadyrov’s praise. Shortly thereafter, a peculiar series of award ceremonies began, during which Adam Kadyrov was honored by the leaders of Russia’s predominantly Islamic regions.
At the same time, Adam Kadyrov rose through the ranks and became his father's head of security. This spring, Ramzan Kadyrov initially appointed him «curator of the interior minister.» The function contradicts convention, as the Interior Ministry is a federal ministry whose officials are appointed and managed from Moscow. The law does not provide for a supervisor appointed by the regional leader.
Furthermore, the younger Kadyrov lacks all qualifications that might be deemed necessary for such a post. He is a minor, has not completed any higher education and has not served in the military, all of which would normally be essential for positions in security agencies. Three weeks after this announcement, he was even promoted to a key position as head of the republic's Security Council. The motorcade he uses to travel through Chechnya is now said to be as large as his father's. Increasingly often, civil servants are hanging Adam Kadyrov's portrait in their offices.
Waiting period ahead
Chechnya is an absolute special case within the Russian Federation. Putin entrusted the Kadyrov family, which actually fought against Moscow in the first Chechen War, with pacifying the devastated and shattered North Caucasus republic in the second war. This has come at a price: Chechnya no longer shows any desire for secession, but lives under the brutal, shameless rule of the Kadyrovs, in violation of many articles of the Russian constitution.
However, there is one provision even Ramzan Kadyrov cannot elide: No one in Russia is allowed to head a region before the age of 30. Thus, for years to come, Adam Kadyrov will be able to rule Chechnya only from the sidelines. It is not clear that this model will work. At present, it appears that the Kremlin is not opposed to the arrangement. Putin cannot afford unrest in the North Caucasus. His coffers are emptying as a result of the war, and he certainly needs the loyalty of the Kadyrovs. The question is rather whether Adam Kadyrov will truly be in a position to seize – and hold – the family inheritance.
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