Judul : How Long Will the Dry Season Occur in Indonesia? This is the Statement from BMKG
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How Long Will the Dry Season Occur in Indonesia? This is the Statement from BMKG
Best for you.CO.ID - The Indonesian Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) predicts that the wet dry season will occur until October 2025.
Dry drought is a condition where the dry season, which is usually dry, still experiences significant rainfall.
Dry drought also means that Indonesia will experience above-normal rainfall, which should occur during the dry season.
Then, what causes the wet dry season predicted until October 2025?
Cause of the wet drought until October 2025
Head of BMKG Dwikorita Karnawati said that rain will continue to fall during this dry season. Monthly rainfall prediction results show that the rainfall anomaly that has already occurred since May 2025 will continue.
This occurred with above-normal rainfall in most parts of Indonesia until October 2025.
"The weakening of the Australian Monsoon associated with the dry season also causes sea surface temperatures in southern Indonesia to remain warm, and this contributes to the occurrence of the rainfall anomaly," he said through an official statement received by Kompas.com on Tuesday (8/7/2025).
In addition, the active Kelvin waves observed crossing the northern coast of Java, accompanied by wind slowdown and deflection in western and southern Java, triggered air mass accumulation.
Subsequently, the convergence of winds and local atmospheric instability were also strongly observed, thus accelerating the growth of rain clouds.
Regarding the global climate, BMKG and several global climate centers predict that ENSO (sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean) and IOD (sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean) will remain in the neutral phase during the second half of 2025.
This means it can be assured that some parts of Indonesia are in the wet dry season.
Furthermore, this condition aligns with the BMKG's prediction in March 2025 that this year's dry season will experience a decline of approximately 29 percent in the Seasonal Zone (ZOM). This condition mainly occurs in the regions of Lampung, most of Java Island, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara.
Monitoring until the end of June 2025 shows that only about 30 percent of the Rainy Season Zones have entered the dry season.
This number is only half of the normal condition, where climatologically about 64% of the Rainy Season zones usually have experienced the dry season by the end of June.
Potentially extreme weather
Dwikorita highlighted the extreme weather threatening several tourist destinations, densely populated areas, and high-traffic transportation activities. Therefore, early warnings have been issued since June 28 in order to mitigate school holiday activities.
Some areas to be alert are western and central parts of Java Island (especially Jabodetabek), South Sulawesi, West Nusa Tenggara, East Kalimantan, Maluku, and Papua.
The area has been confirmed to experience heavy, very heavy, to extreme rainfall in recent days. On July 5, 2025, rainfall of more than 100 mm per day (heavy to very heavy) occurred in the areas of Bogor, Mataram, and several regencies in South Sulawesi.
The extreme rain caused floods, flash floods, landslides, and fallen trees. In addition, heavy rain also occurred in Tangerang and East Jakarta areas, causing puddles, infrastructure damage, and disruption of community activities.
Similarly, on July 6, 2025, rain occurred again across the Jakarta area and its surroundings. This was particularly in the Tangerang area, causing water pooling, traffic congestion, and an increased potential for hydro-meteorological disasters.
Heavy rainfall intensity was recorded more than 100 mm per day, even reaching 150 mm per day in Puncak, West Java.
Uncle: What is Wet Dry Season? Meaning, Signs, and BMKG Prediction
While in the coming week, BMKG warns that extreme weather is still potentially occurring in various regions, especially in western and central Java, including Jabodetabek, East Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, West Nusa Tenggara, including Mataram; Central Maluku, as well as central and northern Papua.
"Then, from July 10-12, 2025, significant rainfall is expected to shift to the central and eastern parts of Indonesia, along with the shift of atmospheric disturbances and tropical moisture distribution," said Dwikorita.
BMKG urges the community to remain alert and prepared for the potential of heavy rain accompanied by lightning/thunderstorms and strong winds.
The community must be alert to the risks of hydro-meteorological disasters, such as floods, landslides, falling trees, flash floods, and transportation disruptions.
This article was published on Kompas.com with the title "Dry Season Predicted to Last Until October 2025, Here's BMKG's Explanation"
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