Judul : Indonesia Still Subject to 32% Tariff, Economist: Trump's Negotiations Are Just Slogans
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Indonesia Still Subject to 32% Tariff, Economist: Trump's Negotiations Are Just Slogans
Best for you JAKARTA — President United States (AS) Donald Trump continues to apply a reciprocal rate of 32% against Indonesia . The tariff amount has not changed even though Indonesia has negotiated with Trump.
Economist Wijayanto Samirin from Paramadina University called the negotiation opportunities offered by Trump to several countries, including Indonesia, just empty rhetoric.
"Trump is a true unilateralist. He does not want to listen to the other party. Negotiation opportunities are just slogans, various issues discussed in negotiations are considered as wind passing by," Wijayanto told Bisnis on Tuesday (7/8/2025).
For that reason, Wijayanto suggested that the government should make decisions that do not harm the country in order to obtain tariff relief from Uncle Sam's country.
"Of course, we hope there will still be changes before August 1, 2025, but we must not sacrifice too much just to get a tariff relief," he said.
Namun, Wijayanto menilai dampak pengenaan tarif 32% dari AS tergantung dari besaran tarif yang dikenakan untuk negara lain, terutama negara dengan struktur ekspor yang sama dengan Indonesia, seperti, China, Malaysia, dan India.
“Kita tahu, Vietnam mendapat tarif 20%, jauh lebih bagus dari kita. Akan banyak ekspor produk sepatu, TPT dan elektronik dari Indonesia ke AS yang akan pindah ke Vietnam,” ujarnya.
Di sisi lain, ekspor Indonesia ke AS hanya mewakili 2,2% produk domestik bruto (PDB) dan 9,9% total ekspor. Namun, angkanya mewakili 45% surplus perdagangan.
He also added that imposing this 32% tariff could worsen the current account deficit position, increase pressure on the rupiah, and make issuing new debt or refinancing old debt even more challenging.
Meanwhile, the Vietnam-China relationship will become complicated. However, Wijayanto mentioned that this situation creates an opportunity for Indonesia to collaborate more with China.
Menurutnya, pemerintah harus mengambil keputusan untuk kepentingan nasional dan tidak boleh tergantung pada negara lain. Dia juga menyarankan untuk melakukan percepatan perbaikan daya saing ekonomi melalui penguatan kolaborasi dengan negara lain, khususnya sesama anggota BRICS.
This stance will make non-US global cooperation more vibrant; whether it is BRICS or South-South. Opportunities with Latin America and the EU also need to be better optimized.
"AS is actually the party that is increasingly harmed, what is obtained is only additional state revenue paid by its own people, and the idea of creating manufacturing sector jobs will not happen," he said.
Furthermore, according to Wijayanto, Indonesia's trade balance with the US will remain in surplus, although it has the potential to decline. However, he added, Indonesia can strengthen its trade with China, Japan, South Korea, and India.
"Instead, trading with other countries, especially China, Japan, South Korea, and India, which may be treated poorly by Trump, needs to be improved," he said.
According to Business records, the US became the highest surplus contributor at US$7.08 billion from January to May 2025. The country managed to overtake India, which had been in first place.
In the first five months of 2025, India only contributed a surplus of US$5.3 billion, lower compared to the same period last year worth US$6.59 billion.
Since 2020–2024, Indonesia's trade balance with the US has continued to record a surplus of between US$10 billion to US$16.6 billion, with a growth trend of 5.32%.
In January–December 2024, the trade balance surplus with the US amounted to US$14.34 billion. At that time, the US was the second largest contributor to Indonesia's surplus.
In 2024, the US became the second main export destination for Indonesia with a share of 9.94% or worth US$26.3 billion. On the other hand, for the country of origin of imports, the US is the fourth main supplier to Indonesia with a share of 5.12% or worth US$12 billion.
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