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Thaksin has 'nothing to lose'
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has stepped back into the political spotlight as the ruling Pheu Thai Party and his daughter, suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, find themselves on increasingly shaky ground.
Thaksin's public appearances included an exclusive talk on July 9, a keynote speech on July 17 and a high-profile merit-making ceremony at Wat Ban Rai in Nakhon Ratchasima on Saturday.
Widely seen as the de facto leader of Pheu Thai, Thaksin addressed a broad array of topics including the Hun Sen clip and the Pheu Thai Party's directions following the Bhumjaithai Party's exit from the coalition and the looming Constitutional Court ruling in Ms Paetongtarn's case.
Thaksin, typically a vocal figure, had been unusually quiet for over three weeks. His re-emergence ignited chatter over whether it is intended to help Ms Paetongtarn and whether it will stabilise or add further complications for the Pheu Thai-led government.
Complicating the crisis
Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration, said Thaksin appears to be sending a message to the conservative camp that he is still playing by the rules.
Thaksin signalled that the party will not work with any party that supports changes to Section 112 of the Criminal Code, or the lese majeste law, and left the door open to working again with the Bhumjaithai Party, which is against amending the lese majeste law and granting amnesty to the lese majeste offence, he said.
"It's his way of telling the conservative bloc that between the People's Party (PP) and the Bhumjathai Party, he'd still rather work with Bhumjaithai despite the rift," said the academic.
He said that Thaksin's latest move is also an effort to help his daughter who he portrayed as a victim of Hun Sen's trickery. The party's popularity, especially in its northeastern stronghold, dropped from 40% to 10% in some polls.
However, he believed Thaksin's intervention has done more harm than good because the public sees Ms Paetongtarn as inexperienced when dealing with international affairs.
As for the party, the former prime minister's comments only reinforce the public perception that he is calling the shots in the government especially after his visit to Ban Phitsanulok to attend a meeting of "Team Thailand" for talks about Thailand's latest tariff proposal to the United States, Mr Phichai said.
There are already complaints he has influenced the party and if it can be proven that Pheu Thai has been following his orders, it could become a real issue, he added.
For the Pheu Thai Party to win back support, it has to take the political offensive, said Mr Phichai.
Pheu Thai's recent moves such as putting the brakes on the casino-entertainment complex plan and quietly undermining Bhumjaithai, which shares the same provincial power base, are part of a broader political strategy, he said.
Pheu Thai is also using the Klatham Party to pull influence away from rivals and going after senators with ties to Bhumjaithai. The 20-baht flat-rate electric train fare is also aimed at shoring up public support.
"I don't think it can really help his daughter or the party. If Thaksin really wants to help, the best thing he can do is step away. Don't pull the strings from behind the scenes. Just stay home with the grandchildren," he said.
No longer about popularity
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, said Thaksin's recent move is to help his daughter and show that the "deal" is, in fact, still intact.
However, he said the Pheu Thai-led coalition may not stay beyond the end of this year. A House dissolution is expected after the 2026 budget bill clears parliament and a rotation of positions is finalised.
Thaksin's visit to Ban Phitsanulok suggests the former premier is not concerned about allegations that he is pulling the strings and at this point he has nothing to lose and must demonstrate strength, said Mr Stithorn.
"He is sending a message that even without Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai is still standing. It is to show his deal remains the primary deal. There's no need for a new formula. It's Thaksin and Pheu Thai only," he said.
However, Thaksin's move has done little to boost public support as reflected in recent opinion surveys, adding Thaksin himself seems to be aware that trying to complete with the orange camp on popularity is a losing battle.
Instead, his focus seems to be consolidating power through "big houses" whether by drawing them directly into Pheu Thai's fold or using allied parties to do work. The goal is to secure enough parliamentary support to build a majority when the time comes.
Looking ahead to the next polls, Mr Stithorn said Pheu Thai is unlikely to come out on top and could even fall to third place.
"It's going to be tough. And their best hope is to forge alliances with the Klatham Party and others. If they can get pass the 250-seat threshold, they have a shot [at forming the government," he said.
Pheu Thai's defence
Somkid Chueakong, deputy secretary-general to the prime minister for political affairs, defended Thaksin's return to the spotlight, saying it was planned well before the leaked audio clip surfaced.
He said the government has been tapping into Thaksin's experience to help steer the country through difficult economic conditions such as trade tensions with the US and politically, Thaksin's remarks supported the government stance and were not beyond what Pheu Thai has done and will do.
When asked whether Thaksin remaining quiet might actually help the government, Mr Somkid disagreed.
"Keeping silent might not be better. Ms Paetongtarn is being suspended and opinion polls reflect public sentiments. People are feeling uncertain about leadership," he said.
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